LE FIGARO. - The progression of the Taliban had already pushed many civilians out of the Afghan borders. Here they are in power. Should we expect a major wave of Afghan migration?
Didier LESCHI. -
The war in Afghanistan does not date from yesterday, one can even say that since 1973 this country has not known peace. This war has also had economic and social consequences which have already caused millions of Afghans to leave the country. The millions of Afghans who make up the diaspora have moved to Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Europe. They did it to flee the Taliban or their country's dire economic situation, or for both reasons.
With the arrival of the Taliban to power, we now see that people coming from more developed urban areas like Kabul, where in the last twenty years a middle and upper class has emerged, seek to flee their country and are already fleeing it.
These are mainly educated women, with positions of responsibility and whose social situation and way of life are in direct contradiction with the Taliban ideology.
This is not exactly the same profile as those who have applied for asylum in France in recent years: 90% of young men (with an average age of 27), and, for many, with a low level of training.
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Which countries will these civilians turn to?
There are of course the neighboring countries where Afghan communities are already established.
Then, they will also turn to the countries of Europe.
Regarding France more specifically, we can witness the same phenomenon as with the Syrian middle classes who have gone in priority to the countries which seemed to them, according to the assessment of their skills, the most able to respond to their aspirations.
Countries where English is easily a working language and where the economic situation seems more favorable to them.
In 2015-2016, it was not France that refused Syrians, but them who for the most part preferred to go to Germanic or Northern European countries.
With regard to the Afghans, for several years France has been - along with Germany - one of the main countries for asylum seekers, but, as far as we are concerned, these are less trained people, often non - writers and non-readers of their language.
Of the 1.2 million people who entered Germany in 2015-2016, only 36% were Syrians.
Didier Leschi
Can we imagine a situation similar to that of 2015, during the Syrian crisis, with the arrival of many migrants on French soil?
In 2015 and 2016 France was not faced with a massive influx of Syrians, but the shock of the Syrian crisis led to a disruption of migratory flows.
Of the 1.2 million people who entered Germany, only 36% were Syrians.
It must be remembered.
Unfortunately, human traffickers know how to use crisis situations at the expense of those who aspire to a better life for economic reasons.
Nothing can be ruled out, it will also depend on what Turkey does, which had been a kind of hub for all migrations.
The vigilance expressed by the President of the Republic corresponds to a principle of precaution and to an analysis of the rise in entries into Europe in recent months.
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Are we able to distinguish Afghan asylum seekers from those of other nationalities who pass themselves off as Afghans in order to increase their chances of being admitted to France?
This is a difficult question, you have to rely on the competence of Ofpra's protection officers.
It is true that the Germans had been confronted with the proliferation of false Syrian passports.
We currently have significant migratory pressure from Pakistanis.
The perfidious imagination of the smugglers can lead them to manufacture and sell fake Afghan passports.
The administrative chaos which characterizes Afghanistan today more than yesterday should call for vigilance.
The Afghans already form the second contingent of asylum seekers in Europe, the first in France (10,000 cases per year since 2018, 90% approved). Does France have the means to welcome more?
When there is a need for protection, it would be wrong to reason in numbers.
But more generally, when there is no need for protection, the subject of the reception capacity of immigrants - “migrants” is a portmanteau that mixes very different situations - is in my eyes a subject of integration capacity according to social and economic data and the profile of those who come.
Our country is experiencing difficulties in accessing employment for people with little or no qualifications, in particular because of the need to know French in order to exercise jobs, even in the building industry, if only for safety reasons.
Traditional Afghan immigration is often unsuited to the labor market due to its poor command of the French language.
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To be more specific on housing, I currently see a number of mayors who say they want to welcome Afghans. If it is temporary accommodation, the state generally knows how to do it. But as of now, there are in the accommodation centers of the national reception system hundreds of Afghans who have obtained refugee status. If these cities want us to welcome new arrivals as well as possible, we urgently need the places occupied by these refugees to be freed up through access to housing. I understand the mayors' difficulties in allocating accommodation for these refugees, but any help from now on will be welcome for those who are already here, which will help better welcome those who must be rescued and whom France has been sending since last March.